Monday, June 25, 2007

2008 election???

A great deal of speculation today has been made in the newspapers about a possible general election in 2008 and that Gordon Brown will go to the polls in the next year. The whole matter is an interesting idea and one that has some logic, however Labour has to be in position to win that election given that only a very small swing away from us is needed to lose our overall majority given the new boundaries (which come into effect the day Gordon Brown takes over). At the moment the evidence is inconclusive and now is not the time to make judgements given that it's highly likely that Gordon Brown will have a honeymoon period and as already we've had an upswing in our ratings, though a poll tonight has us trailing the Tories by 5%.

The real position will come a few months down the line, if we are in a position to win a fourth term then I believe Gordon Brown will call an election, probably for Thursday 1st May which happens to be the anniversary of the 1997 election victory and is also the Local election day next year. With the budget likely to be in March this would be the most likely date if he does go the polls in 2008. I don't believe he'll wait till after the May Local elections and go in June as local elections are always a major challenge for Labour given differential turnout etc, though we're well placed to make gains given that we did very poorly in this election cycle last time in 2004.

In the event that we are to have an election next year, Labour will also have to raise desperately needed funds and select more candidates, which is currently running behind the Conservatives (who've selected nearly all their marginal seat candidates) and the Lib Dems. This can be done, but it's another challenge and potential hurdle.

If I was to predict an election date it's still most likely to be held on Thursday
11th June 2009(which also happens to be the same date as the 1987 election) this is the same date as the European elections and probably the Local elections. However, we could be in for interesting times ahead in the next year and nothing can be ruled out, watch this space.


Anonymous Bill Blunt said...

Hmmm - not sure where the smart money will go on this one, Martin, but I guess 11 June 2009 is as good a bet as any.

But I suppose Gordon won't want to be seen to be hanging on until the bitter end and, of course, a lot of 'events' can happen between 1 May 2008 and then, any one of which could trip Labour up.

For what it's worth, I'm punting my fiver on the earlier date.

Best wishes


12:28 am  

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