Wednesday, December 20, 2006

December ICM Opinion Poll

OK, it is no the best opinion poll result to be eight points adrift of the Conservatives in the latest poll. However, the ICM poll tends to give the Labour party it's worst ratings, the methodology used varies considerably between polling companies with MORI polls tending to make the gap narrower.

In relation to the poll, given the constant bad publicity we've had from the media over the past few months, to be only eight point adrift it not a bad score. The recent polls also show our support stable, indeed we are up on previous polls earlier in the year. When the Conservatives were last in power they were regularly behind by bigger margins and still went on to win the following General Election.

The Tory support is only at 40% which is barely over the winning line, indeed most polls are showing them at a lower figure. Some of their extra support has also come from the Liberal Democrats and given their dismal leader Ming Campbell this is not surprising(I'm minded to place a bet that he'll get dumped in 2007).

We are now ten years into a Labour Government and no sign exists yet that the Conservative are on the crest of re-gaining power at the next election. Indeed, looking at the polling data a great deal of their support seems to be pretty soft. Every government becomes unpopular, that it has taken so long four us to show this deficit is pretty good indication of how despised the Conservative party had become and pur success in office.

For 2007, the Labour Party needs to re-engage and re-new itself in office. I have no doubt given that we have a leadership election next year we will hopefully see a bounce on our poll ratings.

If Cameron set for power he would be leading by 15-20% in the polls which are figures that both Ted Heath and Margaret Thatcher had when they were in opposition(even up to 30% in the lead). The Conservatives are no where near that figure and given the swing back to Governments that nearly always takes place from mid-term he would need to be producing these figure if the Conservatives are to have a chance of winning.

I'm still believer that we can win a fourth term in office with a majority and all is to play for in 2007.


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