Tuesday, November 07, 2006

US Elections

Over the past few weeks I've been watching the US Mid terms elections closely and being the political junkie I am been reading what is for me the best source for US Politics www.politicalwire.com on a regular basis.

From watching a large amount of CNN when I was in South East Asia(the choice is pretty limited) it is clear that Americans are turning against the war and many Republican senators are voicing concern at how the war is being conducted and the strategy. In the States it is clear that people are losing patience with Iraq and the on-going daily toll of casualties, with over 100 US soldiers killed in October the War is the main issue at the moment in the States.

While the Republicans prospects have been affected by the conduct of the war, it has not been the only issue which will define this election. The on-going spate of scandals that engulfed the Republicans this year, the Jack Abramroff case and then the Rep Mark Foley case with the associated cover up have contributed to their problems.

Tonight will hopefully see the beginning of the end of the Republican hegemony in America which has been in the asecendency since Reagan coming to power in 1981, apart from a few optimistic moments like Bill Clinton winning the presidency, the Republicans have dominated the White House winning five of the last seven elections and having dominated congress since the Gingrich revolution of 1994(apart from a brief period when the Democrats ran the Senate between 2001-2).

How do I think it will go? I think the Democrats will win the House with a majority of about 23 and will break 229D to 206R. In terms of Senate races I think the Republicans will retain control, Democrats will pick up Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia and Missouri but fail to win in Tennessee and Montana. That will make the Senate the Senate 48 Democrat, 50 Republican, with two independents likely to be elected in Joe Liberman and Bernie Sanders who have both said they will caucus with the Democrats it will make it 50-50 with the Vice President having the casting vote. The same outcome as 2000 which funnily enough is also took place on 7th November and when these seats were last up for election, it is also the 6th anniversary of George Bush winning the presidency(well the courts won it for him). The race could even end up in the courts if some of the results are ultra close. Anyway tonight will be an interesting night and I eagerly await the results.


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